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The Remodeling Market Could Turn in Q4, Says Harvard

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The Remodeling Market Could Turn in Q4, Says Harvard

Repair and remodeling spending could see an uptick at the end of the year

By Caroline Broderick January 19, 2024
remodeling market
Photo: stock.adobe.com

Harvard predicts the decline in home improvement spending will turn around at the end of 2024, according to the University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.

The Center’s Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) report monitors eight different economic indicators to provide predictions for homeowner renovation and maintenance spending. 

The latest LIRA offers a more uplifting projection for the remodeling market compared to the past year, with an increase in spending beginning in the fourth quarter of 2024, from -7.8% four-quarter moving rate of change in Q3 to -6.5% in Q4.


remodeling spending lira
The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University releases its LIRA projections quarterly.



Home improvement spending began to descend in the third quarter of 2023, the first decline since 2010. Still, the Center says spending on home improvements and repairs to owner-occupied homes remain high, and declines are relative to previous quarters. Anecdotally, many in the industry say the remodeling market remains healthy.

Spending is expected to “easily surpass the robust levels seen early in the pandemic,” writes Senior Research Associate & Associate Project Director of Remodeling Futures Abbe Will.

The drops in spending this year compared to previous quarters are a result of high prices, interest rates, and weak home sales, according to Will. Total expenditures in remodeling will fall from $481 billion in 2023 to $450 billion in 2024.


written by

Caroline Broderick

Caroline Broderick is the Managing Editor for Pro Remodeler. Most recently, she served as the associate editor for PR's sister publications, Pro Builder, Custom Builder, and PRODUCTS where she covered design, building products, trends, and more in the residential construction industry. She can be reached at cbroderick@sgcmail.com.

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