Top Remodelers Report a ‘Lumpy’ but Strong 2025—And Note Caution for 2026

The remodeling industry’s top executives have described 2025 as anything but predictable, with most still posting solid growth, strong profits, or even record-breaking performance. That was the consensus during the Q4 Thought Leaders call, a quarterly roundtable hosted by industry advisor Mark Richardson and attended by CEOs, presidents, and other leaders across design-build and home improvement.

The group’s shorthand for the year was consistent: lumpy, wonky, herky-jerky. Lead flow has surged and stalled in waves. Some regions are riding strong consumer demand; others are bracing for a slow Q1. But despite economic and political uncertainty, the majority reported meeting or exceeding revenue goals and expressed cautious optimism about 2026.

Big revenues, mixed signals

Harth Builders (greater Philadelphia area) is projecting its best first nine months on record, with net margins near 10%. Still, President Greg Harth noted a thinner design backlog after a weak second quarter. “I can’t get a read on it. Lead flow is back up, but we’re preparing for turbulence and leaning harder on handyman work because people will still do small jobs.”

In the specialty remodeling sector, Thompson Creek Window Company is up 11% year over year, though marketing costs have cut into margins. President Chris Sever said demand didn’t disappear; it “shifted,” with homeowners more intent on value, transparency, and trust.

Chicago-area Normandy Remodeling will close out 2025 strong and expects modest growth next year. Appointments were down 4%, but strong closing rates and direct-mail marketing kept the pipeline healthy. “It’s been a pretty good year,” said owner and President Andy Wells, who noted their new headquarters has buoyed employee morale.

On the West Coast, Harrell Design+Build (Silicon Valley) is finishing its best year ever, beating its revenue goal by 15%. But President Lisa Sten warned of a sharp drop in 2026 backlog. “We’re falling off the cliff next year,” she said. Larger projects are taking longer to develop, and $12–13 million in design-phase work isn’t converting fast enough.

Stronger closing rates and surging demand for small projects pushed Mosby Building Arts in St. Louis to a dramatic 35% sales increase this year. President Mark McClanahan said profits are very strong despite a self-imposed pace that kept revenue slightly behind target. “The phone’s been ringing a lot, and we’re making a lot of sales around the smaller projects. Exteriors is way ahead of plan.”

One theme cut across market segments: homeowners are still investing, but more cautiously and often on a smaller scale.

Top performers: metal roofing, bath replacements, handyman services, and exterior projects

In Milwaukee, Abby Home is on track for its best year ever, with TV advertising delivering more leads in 2025 than the prior year. Owner Abby Binder offered an unusual data point: the local market cooled when the Milwaukee Brewers entered the playoffs and rebounded as soon as they exited. “I’m a diehard Brewers fan, so it sucked to see them lose — but the minute they were out, our leads jumped right back up. It was weird how one thing could drive a market,” she said.

Several design-build firms—particularly in Michigan and the Mid-Atlantic—reported homeowners hesitating on larger projects. In Ann Arbor, Melissa Kennedy, president of Meadowlark Design+Build, reported a different kind of leading indicator: trades in her market have begun laying workers off. “We haven’t seen that since 2008,” she said, noting a sudden thinning of the Q1 pipeline and homeowners stalling mid-conversation. Several on the call echoed the unease, with economists at recent industry events warning that contractors have been “labor hoarding” for months and may finally be forced to cut.

In Washington, D.C., Landis Architects/Builders has been heavily affected by the federal government shutdown. “We’ve had to work 25% harder to make a little bit less,” said CEO Ethan Landis. Still, the firm is expanding into Annapolis, Maryland.

Macro view: high equity, low mobility

The group also received updates from Kermit Baker, AIA's chief economist. According to Baker:

• About 50% of U.S. homeowners now have no mortgage, representing a record level of tappable equity.
• Mobility remains extremely low, reinforcing the trend of investing in existing homes rather than moving.
• The Harvard LIRA expects only modest growth in 2026.
• Homeownership rates are drifting downward as more households turn to renting—an important long-term structural shift.

Despite uneven local conditions, most of the group said their 2025 performance was solid and their outlook for 2026 ranged from cautious optimism to moderate concern. A minority expects a decline greater than 3%.

The headwinds: confidence and predictability

Unpredictability remains the industry’s biggest challenge. Minneapolis design-build owner Michael Anschel described the year bluntly: “Not my favorite.” Leads have been inconsistent, and consumer sentiment feels fragile. He pointed to manufacturers like Triangle Tube exiting the North American market as an indicator of broader instability.

Still, even among those expressing caution, the consensus is clear: the fundamentals remain strong as long as consumer confidence holds. “This year has been lumpy,” Richardson summarized, echoing comments from Harvard and AIA economists. “But for most of you, it’s still been a good year.”